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2024 US elections

We explore the potential for key policies to change after November’s presidential and congressional elections, and the credit implications for a range of debt issuers

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Presidential politics, policy decisions and their economic impact

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Moody’s U.S. election tracker

View narrative analysis of the latest election developments from Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics’ Chief Economist

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research

Oct 08, 2024

 Moody's Ratings
US trade and foreign policies will shape credit conditions in Asia-Pacific

Whatever the US election results, restrictive measures – particularly toward China – will likely continue or intensify. This is credit negative for some APAC sectors and economies; positive for others. (Available in: 中文)

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infographic

Oct 07, 2024

 Moody's Ratings
Rising US protectionism a credit risk for a range of sectors and economies

US trade policy is likely to tighten whatever the country’s election outcomes. Sectors and economies most reliant on the US, with lower credit quality and weak value-chain positions are most at risk.

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podcast

Oct 03, 2024

 Moody's Ratings
US elections will shape future of federal finances and economy

Both presidential candidates have very different positions on fiscal, trade and immigration policies, which if implemented could have big implications for US debt issuers and the economy.

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research

Oct 08, 2024

 Moody's Ratings
US trade policies have potential to lower GDP in APAC to varying degrees

Blanket US trade tariffs and sector-specific barriers would each cause GDP to be lower than it would otherwise be across APAC economies. Economic losses would be larger with blanket tariffs. (Available in: 中文)

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research

Oct 02, 2024

 Moody's Ratings
Postelection immigration policy will curb or accelerate demographic woes facing US public finance

For municipal debt issuers, reversing positive net immigration would exacerbate the credit-negative effects of a shrinking and aging workforce, including slower economic growth and higher labor costs.

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research

Sep 26, 2024

 Moody's Ratings
US postelection geopolitics, trade policy, political divisions will shape European credit

The US stance on Ukraine and China, and continued protectionist trade policy, will have credit-negative effects in Europe. But Europe’s greater policy predictability could be a competitive edge. (Available in: Français)

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research

Sep 25, 2024

 Moody's Ratings
Latin America awaits next US president’s trade, immigration and energy policies

The rise in China's Latin America trade and investment will increase tensions with the US regardless of who wins the election, while US efforts to curb unauthorized immigration will continue. (Available in: Español, Português)

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article

Aug 21, 2024

 Moody's
A look at the macroeconomic impacts of Harris’ economic plan

VP Harris’ policy proposals mirror President Biden’s and, taken together, would reduce the federal budget deficit

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article

Aug 01, 2024

 Moody's
Assessing the macroeconomic consequences of Harris vs. Trump

In this analysis we assess the macroeconomic consequences of the policies proposed by the candidates

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research

Jul 10, 2024

 Moody's Ratings
AI-driven disinformation poses credibility, governance risks as 2024 election nears

The use of deepfakes could affect the outcome of US elections and influence policymaking, undermining US institutions’ credibility and creating governance problems for states and local governments. 

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