We explore the potential for key policies to change after November’s presidential and congressional elections, and the credit implications for a range of debt issuers
We are watching these policies and the credit effects – positive and negative – on sectors globally: fiscal; economic and trade; climate; immigration; financial and tech regulation; national security
EVENT
MOODY'S
17 OCT 2024 | 1 PM EDT
The anticipation of the upcoming election is on the top of everyone’s minds. Rightly so, as the decisions made in the coming weeks will likely affect every sector of our economy. Join the discussion with Chief Economist Mark Zandi and his team of experts.
View narrative analysis of the latest election developments from Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics’ Chief Economist
Whatever the US election results, restrictive measures – particularly toward China – will likely continue or intensify. This is credit negative for some APAC sectors and economies; positive for others. (Available in: 中文)
Both presidential candidates have very different positions on fiscal, trade and immigration policies, which if implemented could have big implications for US debt issuers and the economy.
For municipal debt issuers, reversing positive net immigration would exacerbate the credit-negative effects of a shrinking and aging workforce, including slower economic growth and higher labor costs.
The US stance on Ukraine and China, and continued protectionist trade policy, will have credit-negative effects in Europe. But Europe’s greater policy predictability could be a competitive edge. (Available in: Français)
The rise in China's Latin America trade and investment will increase tensions with the US regardless of who wins the election, while US efforts to curb unauthorized immigration will continue. (Available in: Español, Português)
VP Harris’ policy proposals mirror President Biden’s and, taken together, would reduce the federal budget deficit
In this analysis we assess the macroeconomic consequences of the policies proposed by the candidates
The use of deepfakes could affect the outcome of US elections and influence policymaking, undermining US institutions’ credibility and creating governance problems for states and local governments.