Navigating credit risk and the potential changes to policies after the 2024 US elections
Learn more about the 2024 US elections and other insights on global credit risk
As the US wraps up a pivotal presidential election season, Moody's Ratings dissects the potential credit risks stemming from growing US protectionism. The analysis reveals that future US trade policies could become more restrictive, impacting sectors and economies reliant on the US market, especially those lower in the value chain with weaker credit quality. This shift poses a particular risk of tariffs on significant US imports, with varying degrees of exposure and resilience across different regions and sectors. Take a deeper dive as Moody's Ratings analysts explore the potential for key policies to change, and the credit implications for a range of debt issuers. Find a selection of our key reports and insights below. |
Rising US protectionism a credit risk for a range of sectors and economies US trade policy is likely to tighten whatever the country’s election outcomes. Sectors and economies most reliant on the US, with lower credit quality and weak value-chain positions are most at risk.
US elections will shape future of federal finances and economy Both presidential candidates have very different positions on fiscal, trade and immigration policies, which if implemented could have big implications for US debt issuers and the economy.
US postelection geopolitics, trade policy, political divisions will shape European credit The US stance on Ukraine and China, and continued protectionist trade policy, will have credit-negative effects in Europe. But Europe’s greater policy predictability could be a competitive edge. (Available in: Français)
Postelection immigration policy will curb or accelerate demographic woes facing US public finance For municipal debt issuers, reversing positive net immigration would exacerbate the credit-negative effects of a shrinking and aging workforce, including slower economic growth and higher labor costs.
US trade policies have potential to lower GDP in APAC to varying degrees Blanket US trade tariffs and sector-specific barriers would each cause GDP to be lower than it would otherwise be across APAC economies. Economic losses would be larger with blanket tariffs. (Available in: 中文)
You can learn more about our recently concluded campaign, by visiting our US elections page. Our expert analysts from Moody’s Ratings will guide you through potential shifts and trends across sectors globally, including key changes in fiscal, economic, climate, immigration, financial/tech regulation, and national security policies. |