Navigating global credit amid countdown to the US elections
Read more insights and analysis around the 2024 US elections
As the 2024 US presidential elections approach, Moody's Ratings unveils critical thought leadership content focusing on the elections' credit risks. We explore how the potential future leadership of either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, along with changes in the congressional balance of power, could shape post-election credit conditions and global financial markets.
Shifts within six key US policy areas – fiscal; economic and trade; climate; immigration; financial and tech regulation; national security – would have credit implications for sectors across the globe.
United States: The 2024 US elections and their impact on economic policy
Moody’s Ratings breaks down the economic implications of the upcoming US elections, highlighting how electoral outcomes will influence fiscal policy, tax reforms, and federal spending. Under the new US administration, these policies will shape the nation's response to inflation and credit risks amidst rising budget deficits. The balance of power in Congress will be crucial in implementing these changes, affecting the sovereign credit profile.
Moody’s Talks: How the US election could shape global credit conditions
Experts discuss how the 2024 elections could influence global credit markets, focusing on investor sentiment, market liquidity, and credit conditions across economies. Special attention is given to the potential effects of US fiscal policy shifts, changes in interest rates, and trade relationships on global markets.
Growing US protectionism is a credit risk for some sectors and economies
Analysts dissect the potential credit risks stemming from growing US protectionism. The analysis reveals that future US trade policies could become more restrictive, impacting sectors and economies reliant on the US market, especially those lower in the value chain with weaker credit quality. This shift poses a risk on tariffs on significant US imports.
Find out how US policies will likely affect across varying regions:
Asia-Pacific: US trade and foreign policies will impact APAC credit conditions
Whatever the 2024 US election results, restrictive measures – particularly toward China – will likely continue or intensify. This is credit negative for some APAC sectors and economies; positive for others. (Available in: 中文)
Europe: US postelection geopolitics, trade policy, political divisions will shape European credit
The US stance on Ukraine and China, and continued protectionist trade policy, will have credit-negative effects in Europe. But Europe’s greater policy predictability could be a competitive edge. (Available in: Français)
Latin America: LatAm awaits next US president’s trade, immigration and energy policies
The rise in China's Latin America trade and investment will increase tensions with the US regardless of who wins the 2024 election, while US efforts to curb unauthorized immigration will continue. (Available in: Español, Português)
As the countdown to the 2024 elections continues, expert insight and analysis are vital for stakeholders looking to navigate the complexities of a changing global credit landscape influenced by US political shifts. For all US Elections insights across Moody’s, please visit the 2024 US Elections topic page to stay informed.
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